Downscaled Climate Projections
Advantages of a Probabilistic Approach
The atmosphere is a chaotic system with motions at all scales. Given only the large-scale atmospheric state, one cannot know the precise evolution of the atmosphere at the small scale. At the same time, the large-scale atmospheric state does place strong constraints on the small scale. For example, the large scale atmosphere may be very favorable for the development of small-scale convective storms but the exact location at path of the storms is unknown. By conditioning the Probability Density Function (PDF) of the small scale on the large scale, we are representing the relationship between the large scale and the small scale in a more physically realistic way.