Introduction

Advantages of a Probabilistic Approach

Statistical Models

Large-Scale Predictors

Potential Pitfalls

Direct Predictors

Other Predictors

Weighting Predictor Fields

Fitting Statistical Models - Cross Validation

Data and Data Quality Control

Interpolating to a Grid

Covariability between Grid Points and Variables

Climate Models and De-biasing

Performance

Future Projections

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Downscaled Climate Projections

Large-Scale Predictors

Here we discuss the large-scale variables that are used to predict the small-scale Probability Density Functions (PDFs). We are restricted to using variables that are archived at daily resolution in the CMIP3 model archive.

• Potential Pitfalls
• Direct Predictors
• Other Predictors
• Weighting Predictor Fields

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