Downscaled Climate Projections

Advantages of a Probabilistic Approach

Our downscaling methodology is inherently probablistic: the large-scale in a climate model does not determine the precise values of the downscaled variables. Instead the large-scale determines the likelihood of potential values of the downscaled variables, or in other words, the large-scale determines the Probability Density Function (PDF) of the downscaled variables. This approach has several strong advantages compared to a more traditional deterministic approach:

- Realistic extremes without "Inflation"
- Flexibility to Control Covariability in Time, Space and between Variables
- Preserves Extremes when Interpolating to a Grid
- More Realistic