Downscaled Climate Projections
Climate Models and De-biasing
CMIP5 Climate Models
The large-scale climate predictions are taken from the CMIP5 climate models, a critical source of data to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5). There are 24 models with enough daily data for us to downscale:
ACCESS1-0; ACCESS1-3; CanESM2; CMCC-CESM; CMCC-CM; CMCC-CMS; CNRM-CM5; CSIRO-Mk3-6-0; GFDL-CM3; GFDL-ESM2G; GFDL-ESM2M; HadGEM2-CC; inmcm4; IPSL-CM5A-LR; IPSL-CM5A-MR; IPSL-CM5B-LR; MIROC5; MIROC-ESM; MIROC-ESM-CHEM; MPI-ESM-LR; MPI-ESM-MR; MRI-CGCM3; MRI-ESM1; NorESM1-M
De-biasing the Climate Models
The CMIP5 climate models are de-biased using the "CDF remapping" of Wood et al 2002 with a very minor modification to enhance the robustness at the tails of the distribution. They are "de-biased" to look like the NCEP Reanalysis, because our statistical models were "trained" using the large-scale from the NCEP Reanalysis.