Introduction

Advantages of a Probabilistic Approach

Statistical Models

Large-Scale Predictors

Fitting Statistical Models - Cross Validation

Data and Data Quality Control

Data Sources

Hour of Observation

Day of Observation

Precipitation Biases

Interpolating to a Grid

Covariability between Grid Points and Variables

Climate Models and De-biasing

Performance

Future Projections

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Downscaled Climate Projections

Data and Data Quality Control

Data Sources

The station data for precipitation, maximum daily temperature and minimum daily temperature comes from two sources: 1) the National Weather Service's (NWS) Cooperative Observer Program (COOP) (1950-2009) and 2) Environment Canada's Canadian Daily Climate Data (CDCD) (1950-2007). Approximately 4000 stations in the US and Canada were used for training our statistical models. We also used snowfall data from these same data sources in order to help correct the liquid equivalent of frozen precipitation bias. A map of the locations of the temperature stations is shown below.

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