Introduction

Advantages of a Probabilistic Approach

Statistical Models

Large-Scale Predictors

Fitting Statistical Models - Cross Validation

Data and Data Quality Control

Interpolating to a Grid

Covariability between Grid Points and Variables

Climate Models and De-biasing

Performance

Future Projections

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Downscaled Climate Projections

Performance in Reproducing Current Climate

Typically one of the most difficult statistics to reporduce are precipitation extremes. In the two figures below, we show the 99.9^th and 99.99^th percentile daily precipitation amounts estimated from observations and from a downscaled climate model. The climate model extremes are taken directly from the Probabilty Density Functions (PDFs) so we expect less small-scale sampling noise in these plots.

More comparison figures will follow in the future.

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